Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

[Perversion]

See? It says so right here!


Funnily enough, I called this about a year and three months back.

[Ryner]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

Can't expect non-gamers to stay mesmerized by the Wii forever.

[John Mora]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

I'm curious to see any and all forms of media collapse in on themselves! I'm circling over print media with great interest!

[orius]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

Not overly surprising. The casual gamer is such that isn't going to buy more than a small handful of games in a year's time. So everyone falling all overthemselves to make casual games will simply oversaturate the market.

[marcus]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

I felt this quarter has been pretty strong for "core" gamers. Brutal Legend, Dragon Age, Demon's Souls, Uncharted 2, Ratchet and Clank Future Perfect and hell I won't dare say that Modern Warfare 2 is a game that requires no skill to be successful and that Assassin's Creed 2 isn't exactly a game targeting people whose primary gaming experience is Bejeweled on their cell phones.

I'm glad this crap is in a decline. It's like basic economics 101 that a customer might buy your product but a satisfied customer will return. These giant mega corporations have gotten caught up in instant gratification.

Unfortunately, less than projected sales (OH GOD WE MADE 90 MILLION INSTEAD OF 91 MILLION CRAP CRAP CRAP) always leads to thousands of people getting laid off.

[Perversion]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

Little off there, marcus. Hardware was down 23% from last October, and software was down 18%. Total software sales were 700+ million for the month, not 90 million. Hell, MW2 did like 315 million on its first day, which will post for November.

[marcus]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

Little off there, marcus. Hardware was down 23% from last October, and software was down 18%. Total software sales were 700+ million for the month, not 90 million. Hell, MW2 did like 315 million on its first day, which will post for November.

My last statement was an exaggeration not based on anything. Hardware and software sales are down collectively. 2008 marked a flood of high profile and easily accessible (dare I say 'casual') games including Wii Fit, Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Mario Kart Wii, Spore, Sony's integration of the DualShock 2, and Guitar Hero World Tour.

Compare that to most of this year's high profile games, majority of which are new IPs. Prototype, inFamous, Brutal Legend, Demon's Souls, and Dragon Age: Origins. We've seen this year the Nintendo DSi, PSP Go, and PS3 Slim but with the state of the economy nobody cares to buy the same damn console with cosmetic differences.

If you ask me, Activision shot themselves in the foot with Guitar Hero as a series. 2008 through early 2009 saw a disgusting glut of Guitar Hero add-ons. The casual gamer wants a complete package, not several expensive expansions. My grandmother bought a Wii and she's still satisfied playing Wii Sports. My cousin still plays Guitar Hero III and until Guitar Hero V he said he didn't buy any of their products because he doesn't care about their half-assed products focused on a single band (in reference to Guitar Hero Metallica/Van Halen/Smash Hits/Aerosmith).

Sales may be down, but this only hurts big business. Dozens of smaller companies like Atlus and Aksys Games can get away selling a couple hundred thousand units. 2009 so far has been one of the best years this generation and as long as companies keep pumping out good, original products I couldn't care less that there's a decline in Shovelware Adventure IV.

[Perversion]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

Yes, but...click the second link I posted above. Obviously Atlus and Aksys will do fine. But the new IPs you mentioned above that led to the "best year of this console gen" might not be made two years from now if the casual slump continues. EA already cancelled 12 games in progress. Who's to say if Brutal Legend was planned to begin development a year from now, that it would even get ANY funding, due to companies not wanting to gamble on risky, niche product? Also, with GH slumping, Brutal Legend would have been unable to ride that popularity in terms of garnering funding from a big publisher wanting to capitalize on the "hot" rock-game category.

[marcus]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

Yes, but...click the second link I posted above. Obviously Atlus and Aksys will do fine. But the new IPs you mentioned above that led to the "best year of this console gen" might not be made two years from now if the casual slump continues. EA already cancelled 12 games in progress. Who's to say if Brutal Legend was planned to begin development a year from now, that it would even get ANY funding, due to companies not wanting to gamble on risky, niche product? Also, with GH slumping, Brutal Legend would have been unable to ride that popularity in terms of garnering funding from a big publisher wanting to capitalize on the "hot" rock-game category.

This isn't new at all. Brutal Legend did have serious funding issues when Activision gobbled up Vivendi and put Double Fine in development hell before EA swooped in (and even after that, Activision claimed that Brutal Legend owed them a meal ticket even though they tried unsuccessfully to merge it into Guitar Hero canon and then dropped the game completely).

There are dozens of publishers that aren't EA, Activision, or Ubisoft. If the game doesn't get picked up by them, then it's unfortunate but nothing will change. That's the nature of big business.

I'm still waiting for Metronome.

[Perversion]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

Yes, there are companies other than those big three third party companies you mentioned. I just think that with the market shrinking, smaller developers are going to have a harder time getting their games into the hands of console gamers. Sure, there's Steam, but you know as well as I do that the PC gaming market is not what it was (aside, probably, from WoW).


And you also know as well as I do that the smaller developers outside of the monolithic megacorps are the ones pushing the industry forward. With fewer publishers willing to take chances on riskier IPs, I think the industry as a whole suffers.

[marcus]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

Yes, there are companies other than those big three third party companies you mentioned. I just think that with the market shrinking, smaller developers are going to have a harder time getting their games into the hands of console gamers. Sure, there's Steam, but you know as well as I do that the PC gaming market is not what it was (aside, probably, from WoW).


And you also know as well as I do that the smaller developers outside of the monolithic megacorps are the ones pushing the industry forward. With fewer publishers willing to take chances on riskier IPs, I think the industry as a whole suffers.

And that's why we have the magical wonders of digital distribution. Now, I know this better than you because I actually own a PC, but the market is far from drying up. Big developers are shying away but because there are no licensing requirements on the PC, literally anyone can publish a game without facing steep costs. This year has seen the release of small press games like Torchlight, The Void in US speaking countries, Risen, and Machinarium

In the console world, PSN, Wii Ware, and XBL are gaining steam (or have you forgotten your favorite game Flower was released by a 10-man compnay?), the iPhone is becoming a hot platform, Microsoft announced their new Zune will be an XNA gaming machine, and handhelds are still accessible to most small press developers.

You can't kill small press. When big press is looking for new ways to make money, the little guy is finding new avenues to display their work. The difficulty is where to look but sometimes the fun is discovering a game you've never heard before and finding it to be a wonderful experience.

[Perversion]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

Of course, I agree with what you are saying. My point is, most people are not like you and I, who actively search out the niche and smaller stuff. The mass gaming public doesn't see these types of games, and therefore does not buy them.


I know your argument is gonna be, "Well, who cares about the mass populace?" My whole point is, I personally would like to see bigger-budget games (like the forthcoming Heavy Rain) that attempt to do something genuinely different, and get the marketing push they need to succeed. Yeah, there are always going to be smaller games for people like us who are willing to make the effort to find them. I just think unconventional game ideas need not be relegated to the $10-$20 downloadable stuff. Eventually, people are gonna get sick of the same rehashes year after year, and possibly might fall out of gaming, the same way the casuals are right now. Fewer gamers possibly equals one console manufacturer falling out of the market (probably Sony) because they cannot afford to keep supporting such a small install base. Then things become more and more monopolistic.


Conjecture, sure, but I don't see this not being a possible scenario/outcome.

[Magus]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

(like the forthcoming Heavy Rain) that attempt to do something genuinely different

[Duel]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

So nobody bought DJ Hero?

[marcus]

Re: Casual bubble deflating gaming industry

Of course, I agree with what you are saying. My point is, most people are not like you and I, who actively search out the niche and smaller stuff. The mass gaming public doesn't see these types of games, and therefore does not buy them.


I know your argument is gonna be, "Well, who cares about the mass populace?" My whole point is, I personally would like to see bigger-budget games (like the forthcoming Heavy Rain) that attempt to do something genuinely different, and get the marketing push they need to succeed. Yeah, there are always going to be smaller games for people like us who are willing to make the effort to find them. I just think unconventional game ideas need not be relegated to the $10-$20 downloadable stuff. Eventually, people are gonna get sick of the same rehashes year after year, and possibly might fall out of gaming, the same way the casuals are right now. Fewer gamers possibly equals one console manufacturer falling out of the market (probably Sony) because they cannot afford to keep supporting such a small install base. Then things become more and more monopolistic.


Conjecture, sure, but I don't see this not being a possible scenario/outcome.

Think of it this way: when a big budget original title gains mass appeal, the formula stays the same. There's safety in familiarity. Call of Duty revitalized the stale WWII shooter genre and Guitar Hero brought rhythm games to mass public attention. The result? They turned into cash cows that either lose the spirit that made the original so much fun or drive the concept into the ground.

This is a trend that constantly repeats. A developer tests new ideas, finds one that sells, then milks it dry. Once dry the process repeats. Now that people are tiring of playing digital guitar, it's time to look for a new idea to leech on.

Meanwhile small devs are sneaking original titles into the market.

So nobody bought DJ Hero?

Nope.