Peak Oil/Gas Theory

[swabian]

After reading an interview with Richard Rainwater, I've been digging into the idea recently called Peak Oil/Gas Theory. See below for a couple of websites deal with energy in general and peak oil in particular:

http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?op...=189&Itemid=91

http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/home/home.aspx

http://www.petroleumworld.com/SunOPF07082601.htm

http://www.theoildrum.com/

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Some of it certainly alarmism (you'll just have to filter out the bs) but it's a fascinating idea that I'm digging into further. Here's an interesting quotation:


"China and India currently have dwarf car fleets, relative to OECD
countries, shown by a few stark figures. China and India’s combined
population of around 2.3 billion, about 37% of the planet’s
total, count about 25 cars per 1000 population, higher in China
and lower in India. The US has about 700, the EU27 countries
about 400-550, and Japan and South Korea about 450. The
growth potential in China and India is simply ‘unlimited’, as the
world’s carmakers say, rubbing their hands in glee."


What are your thoughts?

[The Toecutter]

Re: Peak Oil/Gas Theory

I've known about this for some time. Oil production following a Gaussian Bell Curve is not theory, but fact based upon empiracle data. This is how the majority of nations' oil production looks over time. The U.S. was no exception, having peaked in 1971.

Many leading researchers, including Princeton geologist Dr. Kennith Deffeyes and Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari of the National Iran Oil Company claim peak world oil production was in 2005. So far, they've been right.

The consequences of this could be disasterous.


There's good news and there is bad news.

The good news is that since the 1990s, we've developed the technology to replace oil in a convenient and cost-effective manner.

The bad news is that this crisis is severe enough to lead to a dieoff of half the world's population in 50 years and because of politics, we have neer implemented this above mentioned technology on a mass scale, even when the public insisted on it. Why? Technology such as electric cars, hemp for plastics/biodiesel/textiles/paper, light rail mass transit(eg. trolleys), ultra efficient automobiles through improved aerodynamics and other load reduction techniques, high speed electric rail systems, are all cheaper to the consumer than the systems they replace, retain the convenience of the systems they replace, are not as damaging to the environment as the systems they replace, but they make much less profit margins for industry and are harder for governments to control.



We have a conflict of interest in our society: the world's leading corporate, military, and political elites who are making all the money from vast, unrestrained resource consumption, versus everyone else. Currently, 'everyone else' is losing. Big.


Instead of implementing currently viable alternatives, our government has chosen oil wars. Oil wars and continued reliance upon unnecessary consumption of goods will make our government and the industries who control it money; reliance upon decentralized energy systems and low-maintenace, efficient methods of transportation will mean we all spend less money, money which won't be made by those who control the current society.

The consequences of this could be disasterous for everyone except those with enough money to hide themselves from the after-effects, and said people are already investing in that option.



*edit*

Speaking of China, there's been all sorts of peasant uprisings that are not reported in the news there or here. he Chinese government has been allowing industry to seize people's land, and when the people decide to revolt, they are basically slaughtered by privately-hired death squads and/or the Chinese government. heir land is becoming very polluted from unchecked emissions, and the Chinese government is so obsessed with increasing consumer spending to spur economic growth that it is supporting mass adoption of the internal combustion engine. In many urban areas of China, bicycles, which a majority of the population rely upon, are being banned to allow room for more cars, which the peasants certainly can't afford. The Chinese government is supporting and funding development of internal combustion engine technology moreso than electric vehicle technology, the latter which has been viable for about 10 years now, the former which is grossly antiquated but makes a lot of money

[swabian]

Re: Peak Oil/Gas Theory

Interesting thoughts.


Here's an interesting article on energy "issues" in Africa that I came across a a couple of weeks ago:


http://www.economist.com/displaystor...ory_id=9660077

[Alex]

Re: Peak Oil/Gas Theory

I don't believe in peak oil or global warming. Your leftist theories are nothing but propaganda.

[The Toecutter]

Re: Peak Oil/Gas Theory

Africa was screwed due to colonialism. All of the tribal conflicts that have been instigated as a result of western resource greed and all of the natural resources being pillaged from that country will leave the societies on that continent irreparable for at minimum a few decades(probably much longer). The effects of peak oil started effecting Africa two years back, being that they are the first to be priced out of the market at $50+ a barrel.

One example of why Africa is so messed up is Nigeria. Back in the 1970s, oil companies wanted to drill there; there was relatively clean areas to grow food and the population there could be sustained. The villagers didn't want to give up their land, but Shell Oil and Chevron weren't going to let the oil sit untapped. Mercenaries were hired to kill any who tried to protect their land, and a few rigged elections later the nation is a full-blown dictatorship ruled by a bureaucracy much larger than the one that preceeded it. With the oil drilling the land became irrepairably polluted; many forests were destroyed by oil runoff. With the people kicked off of their farmland and hunter gatherer tribes removed from their regions, they resorted to burning the forests for land to sustain themselves; since this still wasn't enough, infant mortality shot up, and along with it the reproduction rate(Nigeria is today way overpopulated as a result). There were a few revolts in the 1990s against the oil companies, one of them peaceful headed by Ken Saro Wiwa, but they were again stifled when Ken was wrongly arrested, given a rigged trial, and executed. Today, the people there are fed up, want the oil companies OUT, and now we have hundreds of different tribes trying to seize power since there is not enough resources to go around for everyone there. It is no wonder why those in the oil industry are being held hostage by Nigerians on a regulat basis, and given what industry has done to their country, I don't blame them one bit.


Another example is the Congo. The microprocessors we use along with many miniaturized capacitors rely heavily upon the element Tantalum for their construction. Congo has about 80% of the world's tantalum supply. Companies who saw moneymaking potential have used governments and mercenaries to previously remove people from their land, purposely leave a shortage of available jobs so that those who mine it will work for pennies a day, and recently, when these people tried to unionize, force was used to slaughter any dissenters. Now Congo is a full on cluster**** with bands of tribes trying to survive in the chaos.